| 08 September 2009
I am convinced the Bears will play in the playoffs in 2009. Jay Cutler and an improved defense from a year ago will make that happen. I thoroughly believe that Rod Marinelli has made a big difference on how well the defensive line will put pressure on the quarterback. If this happens then the Bears will be able to overcome one more loss and finish 10-6 and make the playoffs.
However that's not what the Windy Citiy faithful nor Peter King of Sports Illustrated has in mind. No the Grabowski's want more, they want an NFC title game shot and one of the best records in the NFL in 2009. They want a return to form of this defense a defense that was one of the best in the NFL in '05 and '06.
So what is it going to take for the Bears to return to a respectable level of dominance on defense? Beyond the obvious Tommie Harris needs to be the Tommie Harris of old lies the question marks in the secondary. I don't feel Harris' knee will ever let him return to that hall of fame level of dominance he was at when he arrived into the league. I do however think he will be productive enough that the defense will improve enough to again, put the Bears into the post season. Harris has shown he can still be disruptive enough can still penetrate enough and make enough plays behind the line of scrimmage to make this defense better. He did this at the end of last season and still showed a burst through his gap ability in the pre-season that makes me comfortable with predicting enough of an improvement to at least middle of the pack.
The truly obvious question is can the Bears nail down one of the top two seeds in the NFC this year and have a playoff game or two at Soldier Field in January?
For this to happen one thing has to happen for the Bears this year beyond Tommie Harris and the pass rush and Devin Hester and the receivers, Charles Tillman and Zack Bowman need to perform at a high level. Neither one has to be a Pro-Bowler they just need to be good players and make plays. Especially with the QBs and passing attacks the Bears face this season. Donovan McNabb and the Eagles, Kurt Warner and the Cardinals, Ben Roethlisberger's Steelers, Matt Ryan and the newly dangerous Atlanta Falcons, all teams capable of airing it out with top notch receivers that can make plays.
Bears fans shouldn't be overlooking the obvious in these passing attacks, Tillman will have to show he is a top notch veteran QB still capable of playing at a nearly a Pro Bowl level or perhaps at that level. Zack Bowman will have to show what all the hype was about before he missed three games of the pre-season with a hamstring problem.
This is what the Bears face in just the regular season, never mind the fact the Bears will likely face one or all of these QBs possibly in the playoffs. It's feasible that a Bears playoff run would look like a wild card game against the Eagles, a divisional game against the Cardinals and then the Falcons in the NFC title game followed by the Steelers in the Super Bowl. The secondary will be majorly tested this season and we'll know this week against Aaron Rodgers and his over4,000 yards passing from last season just how good the Bears will be.
When Charles Tillman plays at a level that he's capable of playing at, more often than not the Bears win. Plus the Bears need that complimentary player to go along with Tillman out there on the other side of the ball with Nathan Vasher struggling so mightily of late. Bowman needs to be that player that can make the exact play we saw him make against the Vikings a year ago, and in his first play of the pre-season this year. Making a break on the ball and making clutch interceptions. This is the role that Cover-2 CBs need to fill, being able to sit back in a zone and break on the balls in front of them. Whether it's making that all important pick or breaking up a slant pass on a third and four, this is what the Bears need.
In deep coverage there is always the help over the top from the safeties. I feel that what we have seen thus from from Kevin Payne and Al Afalava means the Bears will be pretty secure at the safety position. Afalava figures to only get better as the season goes on as a rookie, and he has shown he is a more than ample tackler. This is the responsibility of the safety more than being a ball hawk.
Additionally if there is ample pressure put on by the front four, not allowing things to get open down field with a good pass rush supports the safeties as well. Charles Tillman is not great because of his deep man coverage abilities, he's good because the Bears get a good pass rush forcing teams to dink and dunk and Tillman is great at breaking on the ball, and then stripping receivers who make catches in front of him.
So while most fans may still hope for a Brandon Marshall trade, or at this point picking up a Matt Jones as a receiver on offense. The likely make or break aspect of the season and likely whether or not the Bears go to the Super Bowl will come down to two players, who have each battled and injury during the first month of active practices and play.
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