| 13 September 2009
Beyond my last sarcastic article about the Bears not having a chance against the Green Bay Packers I want to cover why I think the Bears will actually win tonight in Lambeau. A real life prediction where I won't be afraid to go out on a limb with some of my analysis and reasons why the Bears should and will win. Clearly I have been making fun of the analysts and media talking heads about how they say the Bears will lose. However in their analysis they have been accurate, Aaron Rodgers is a good QB, the receivers the Packers have are good and have been productive, both going for over 1,000-yards receiving last year. Just like the Packers, the Bears showed some things in pre-season that give them hope and reasons why they should win tonight.
Just like the Packers experienced success in the pre-season, your Chicago Bears experienced some success that should put them well into position to win tonight. Here are a few of the things that make me think the Bears will win and do so by a pretty surprising score.
Starting with the obvious play of the Bears' revamped offense, Jay Cutler, Matt Forte and Greg Olsen. There have been quite a few teams that have gone to and won the Super Bowl without a wide receiver achieving over 1,000-yards receiving. Obviously it makes things a lot easier if you get that level of production from Devin Hester this season, but experts seem to overlook their own analysis in a bid to knock down the Bears and show a weakness.
Most every NFL analyst or talking head has this as Greg Olsen's break out year, and by all indications throughout training camp and in pre-season games that is in fact true. Cutler could make a bad throw like most everyone says he does, and it may not matter because Olsen has extremely good body control and leaping ability and hands to make the catch. Cutler can throw in just about anywhere near Olsen, in double coverage and Olsen will go up and get it. That's the type of player Olsen is and in 1990 that's what Mark Bavaro was for the Super Bowl winning New York Giants. Over 1,000-yards receiving for Bavaro and a similar style of defensive play put the Giants in the Super Bowl and in position to win. Win they did knocking off the much more talented Buffalo Bills.
This is how your 2009 Chicago Bears look with Olsen who rightfully is being talked about as a Pro Bowl TE this year. This will be your number one receiver in 2009 and it's not a bad option to have. Tonight Olsen will once again put the Packers in a severe match up disadvantage because they don't have one athlete that can match up with Olsen. No one in the secondary is athletic or big enough to keep Olsen for fighting for the ball, and no one is fast enough among the linebackers to keep up with Olsen in space. Olsen should have his break out game, in his break out season tonight against the Packers. Given that the Packers run a 3-4 defense but don't have athletic enough LBs to match up with Olsen this will be a match up Ron Turner will exploit all night long.
If the Packers step up and double Olsen with over and under coverage or bump coverage or anything else, then the Packers now have to step up and leave either Desmond Clark or Devin Hester in single coverage. The last thing the Packers want to do is leave Hester in single coverage and let him operate in space if the Bears go three wide receivers sets with Olsen in the slot in a four wide look. If Hester is at the weak side of the formation in single coverage with the three split wide, this alignment is going to be a nightmare match up for the Packers. Especially if the Bears go with a no huddle offense and work the Packers personnel into a uncomfortable non-nickel package. Not only can the Bears keep Matt Forte into pick up any fancy blitz the 3-4 might bring, someone is going to be in single coverage. Hester in the middle of the field deep, Hester down the side line deep, either way Cutler can exploit this, or the Bears can run out of this spread out single back coverage. Spreading out the 3-4 with a four split wide look and opening up the middle of the defense gives Matt Forte a huge advantage. Forte is a gifted runner in between the tackles and then in the space of the second and third levels. Forte typically makes the first tackler miss with a nifty cut move and then explodes into the secondary. Forte has done this consistently in his short career and doing this will wear down the Packers' defense quickly.
The Packers just don't have the players on defense to stop this sort of open offense, working with a play action. If they blitz Cutler is nimble enough to avoid the pressure and make any throw necessary. If they simply roll Cutler out and run Olsen out of the slot in the opposite direction of the roll out, Olsen slips into space beneath a Hester deep route and into the weak spot in the zone-blitz. Especially if the Packers try to man up a DE on Olsen with a zone blitz. Now Olsen is in an even better position to do damage.
Olsen will do damage against Aaron Kampman anyway, but if the Packers try to blitz with Kampman and utilize him as a rusher only, it takes away from their versatility of their 3-4 defense. What makes the Steelers' defense so good is that both LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison can drop back into coverage and blitz. So you never know where the pressure is coming from or which side or if there is a stunt or a twist that will put Harrison or Woodley into the gap that the other vacates.
Think the ability for a OLB to cover and blitz in the 3-4 isn't valuable? Look no further than James Harrison's 92-yard interception return against the Arizona Cardinals in the Super Bowl. If Harrison is blitzing on that play as Kampman likely would have been because of his inability to cover like Harrison can in the zone, Warner makes the play, likely the touchdown and the Cardinals win the Super Bowl. Strictly limiting Aaron Kampman to the role of a pass rusher, limits the ability of the 3-4 to be effective. This is one aspect that I suspect the Bears will exploit with both Forte, Clark and the ever dangerous Matt Forte.
The Bears Will Win Tonight Because:
Matt Forte as a runner, blocker and a receiver and his ability to exploit the vulnerabilities in the 3-4. Forte is the ideal RB to exploit the 3-4 because of the spacing in the defense and the match up problems Forte creates. Forte isn't simply a RB that can catch the ball well out of the backfield, Forte can line up split wide as a receiver and run routes and catch the ball as well as any WR in the league. His size also belies his ability as a WR, at 6-foot-2 Forte is big for a RB, but he's also decent to big for a receiver. Combine his ability to out fight CBs and safeties for the ball because of his size advantage, add to his ability to be a quick read option in the blitz that the 3-4 offers and Forte will do some major damage tonight. Again there isn't a linebacker on the field that can match Forte's ability as a WR and his ability to obviously run after the catch. If the Packers dedicate a DB to covering Forte, this means Olsen will be one on one in coverage or Desmond Clark could be in one on one, or Hester again running deep plays in space in single coverage creates problems. Shift Forte in motion and run a bubble screen to Devin Hester, and use Forte as a blocker, we know Forte can block, suddenly you have Hester with the ball in his hands in space with blockers in front. The Bears can best attack the 3-4 defense with the two TE set with Clark and Olsen. This gives the Bears the ability to block the five or six man front with the ILBs up the middle. A quick double team scrape block that gives Roberto Garza the chance to block and then elevate to the second level with Forte quickly behind automatically puts the Bears at a major advantage. The Packers may have more of a chance if they had the personnel to fit into the 3-4 but without a true linebacker that fits into the 3-4 and without a true five-technique defensive end, the Bears have the advantage when they have the ball on offense. The importance of the five-technique is to be able to help be double teamed much like the NT. With B.J Raji listed as questionable for the game, the Packers' personnel for the 3-4 defense will be in even more trouble.
This offensive versatility by the Bears' offense and the Packers' lack of personnel for the 3-4 scheme puts the Bears in a real advantage to keep up with the Packers if it comes down to a shoot out. We know the Packers are likely to score points, but now with the Bears' offensive personnel they can keep up with the Packers' offense and take advantage of a lot of mismatches with the Packers' lack of true 3-4 personnel.
In part II of the Bears' game preview I'll examine whether the Bears can keep up with the Packers on defense. Can the Bears avoid a shoot out and put themselves in position to not only win, but also let just about every team in the league know, that the defense will be better.
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