Written by Brett Solesky | 20 April 2010

This time of year the NFL draft hype completely overwhelms the logical reality of the true value of the draft picks that slated to be drafted.   Do some small research into the Bears' first draft pick in the draft 75th overall and the stark reality sets in, not only are the Bears likely not to get an impact player, but they're unlikely to get a starter. 

In recent history the only starter worthy prospect to be drafted #75 overall was OT Max Starks from the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Other players have struggled to be back ups or even stay in the league meaning the pressure is on Jerry Angelo even more to get this pick right. 

The safe call is to take an interior offensive lineman given the value fits with the third round for those prospects.  Someone to possibly step in and take the lead as a left guard to shift Frank Omiyale over to RT and possibly compete with Josh Beekman at the left guard spot in order to prove his mettle. 

The problem is the likelihood the Bears find a consistent starter in the third round is less than 25%, the likelihood they find a player that lasts in the league beyond five years is less than 50%. 

While there have been the occasional third round success stories the Bears would have to be extremely fortunate to land an impact player in the third round.

This is the simple reality of the talent available in the third round in the history of the NFL draft.  Impact players are not often found there. So if Bears fans are thinking that they are going to find the answer to the problems at free safety they need to rethink their expectations. 

No matter what you have heard and have been hearing for the last four and a half months of NFL draft hype you need to flush that out of your brain and focus on the simple historical facts of players who have had the most success that have been selected in the third round. 

At best the Bears likely find a developmental prospect who comes in and learns the system and then out of hard work and dedication develops into a starter.  A classic example of the prototypical third round draft pick would be Josh Beekman and certainly not Lance Briggs.  Beekman is a player who performed adequately as a starter in his second year in the NFL and projects as a potential starter if he continues to develop, but there are certainly no guarantees. 

The 2010 Bears are essentially the 22 starters are faces that are familiar to most Bears fans with only the free agency exceptions. 

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