| 22 July 2010
Moving into the skill position expectations for the pre-training camp expectations for the 2010 Chicago Bears we come to the running backs. Matt Forte is the starter, Chester Taylor is the newly signed primary backup that’s going to help increase Forte’s career and decrease his work load. Precisely how much Taylor decreases Forte’s work load in the Mike Martz offense remains to be seen. Martz seems adamant about the strength of the offense being the receivers and QB Jay Cutler, so this could increase the Forte’s work load even further. Essentially you would expect Martz to call plays that cater to the stronger personnel units on the team.
So what does this mean for the running game? I think that’s an incredibly hard question to answer for a number of different reasons. First and foremost the offensive line and just how good of a run blocking unit they will be. According to the notorious if not infamous KC Joyner the Bears had the sixth worst run blocking unit in the NFL in 2009. Things were really bad on the left side with Frank Omiyale and a has been Orlando Pace. From there Chris Williams who is left handed and has played his entire career on the left side was awful on the right side. Mike Tice already stated that Williams was far better on the left side when Tice evaluated him over the course of the last four games of 2009.
If there is any hope for the RB’s it’s going to start with how good the offensive line blocks. As Joyner pointed out in his article, when Forte received good blocking, which was on 53-percent of the blocking plays he averaged 5.6 YPC the exact same number he averaged as a rookie. As we all recall that was the year Forte came in and rushed for over 1,200 yards.
While the personnel hasn’t changed much on the offensive line the position switches are significant. That is a fact that most Bears fans have lost track of is how dramatic of a shift there has been. Essentially three new starters from the worst unit on the field last year. Williams instead of Pace, Beekman instead of Omiyale and Omiyale or Shaffer instead of Williams going from left to right. That is a major change and it proved to make the O-Line much stronger at the end of 2009.
I digress though I’m getting back into talking about the offensive line when in fact the focus should be on what happens with the RB’s. To put it simply Matt Forte should wind up with Thomas Jones type numbers when Jones was the primary ball carrier in ‘06 with Benson spelling him to ease the work load. Since 2005 Thomas Jones has easily been the most underrated RB in the NFL…PERIOD. Jones has not rushed for under 1,200 yards since then, yet he’ll be playing for his third different team since then in the Chiefs.
This is what Forte should be, a productive every down back who gets a breather from Chester Taylor. By all of KC Joyner’s measurement stats for RB’s Forte was better than Taylor. The same should hold true again for Forte especially with the inside zone blocking scheme that Tice plans to employ. This style of rushing attack fits Forte’s strengths to a T. 
Forte will excel within this scheme because he has great acceleration, vision and cut back ability. Forte won’t need to be able to run away from people like Chris Johnson and his 4.2 40-yard dash speed. Rather he needs to find the cut back lane, cut to it, and accelerate through the lane. This is what Forte has done throughout his entire career to this point, he is one of the best in the game with his vision and cut back ability.
Further helping Forte’s productivity will be how well he performs in the Martz offense as a receiver. The answer is simple and sweet, Forte can line up like a WR in the slot or out wide and run routes and catch passes like a WR. He’s proved that in back to back years and there is little doubt that his production there should increase because Martz like to use his RB’s in that manner. Further complicating things for DB’s attempting to cover Forte is that he fights for the ball like a receiver and at 6-foot-2 is tall enough to be a number one receiver in the NFL. In my opinion it’s not a stretch to state that if Forte were forced to do like Devin Hester and transition to the wide receiver position he could easily catch 70 to 90 passes a season for over 1,000 yards.
Forte has that type of receiving talent whether you believe it or not, he’s proved it with his production increasing from one year to the next in YPR. Yet another element to this offense that could make it the best Bears offense in history….yes in Bears history there is that type of talent at the skill positions.
From Forte we move to Taylor who is allegedly being looked at as a player who could supplant Forte as a starter. Unlikely given Forte is younger and overall more talented. Taylor represents a perfect complement to Forte and will be productive with his touches three to four offensive series’ a game. \
While most Bears fans are ecstatic to land Forte because not only does it weaken the Vikings it strengthens the Bears but there is a feeling that Taylor could supplant Forte. The feeling is that Forte lost the Falcons game with his two fumbles on the goal line, but also hurt the team with his lack of production. This means an opening for Taylor. Nope I don’t see it happening because Forte is that good and Taylor isn’t on the same level as Forte. Being a veteran who can produce will be precisely what the Bears need.
Beyond Forte and Taylor we now come to newly grabbed from the supplemental draft Harvey Unga, and where does Unga fit into the equation. At 244-pounds Unga is not quite a fullback, running a 4.67 40 means he’s not quite a featured ball-carrier. My guess is the Bears plan to use Unga like a fullback anyway. Tice will work with him on his blocking, but he could easily end up on the practice squad. Unga has good hands and has showed that throughout his collegiate career, he is a good power runner, but all this will have to translate to the NFL. At the very least Unga gets some carries late in games in which the Bears are ahead or if there are any injury problems to either Forte or Taylor.
The battle to keep the roster spot is between Khalil Bell and Garrett Wolfe. Wolfe has been a massive disappointment throughout his career, proving that whomever fell in love with him based on his private workout in Chicago was simply overcome with draft scouting hype. Wolfe was a reach in the third round and it’s debatable if he’ll succeed in the inside zone running scheme.
Bell had a big run to start his career with Chicago but not much else after that. He could work hard and earn a spot on the roster or he could just as easily not live up to his flash in the pan run. I think Bell is ahead of Wolfe as far as talent and chance that he’ll produce. The pre-season games will be key for both Bell and Wolfe to decide who keeps their roster spot. Also neither Bell nor Wolfe should underestimate producing on special teams. Keeping your spot on this roster by being a solid special teams player is key to prolonging your career. The Bears don’t ever overlook great special teams play which is why Adrian Peterson lasted so long as has Rashied Davis. Make the team by being a good special teams player and then going from there.
Overall the expectations are simple, Matt Forte should produce at a level on par with the best top-five running backs in the NFC. That’s the talent he possesses and that’s the level he should achieve for the Bears in 2010.
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