| 07 September 2010
Most football fans say that the preseason is pointless and nothing can be taken from it besides for head coaches being able to evaluate their young talent. Well, they may be right, but for the one-week gap between the last preseason game and week one of the regular season, finding some meaning out of the seemingly meaningless month of the NFL is a great way to pass the time.
The goal of this is to compare how each of the Bears’ opponents fared so far in contrast to them. We’ll look solely at how each team ranked for each individual category. The categories used offensively will consist of passing and rushing yds/game, total passing and rushing TD’s, average passing and rushing yds/attempt, and sacks allowed. Defensively, we’ll look at INT’s, sacks, pass and rush yds/game allowed, rush and pass TD’s allowed, and points/game allowed. If the Bears win more categories than their opponent, then we can project a win for their regular season matchup.
So, starting with their divisional opponents, the Packers dominate the Bears offensively in the rankings, never coming within 17 teams in each categorical ranking besides for Rush yds/game, which is still an 8 team gap. The cheese heads passing attack was by far the best in the preseason, ranking first in TD’s and pass yards, both of which should have no problem rolling over into the regular season. Defensively, the Bears won in sacks, passing and rushing yds/game, passing TD’s, and total points/game allowed. They’d tie only in rushing touchdowns allowed. Give them two losses for their two games against the Packers.
Now the woeful Lions step up to the plate. Well, not so woeful after all, as they’ll cleanly sweep the Bears in all offensive categories, seriously. I don’t think that this will carry much weight in their matchups come weeks one and eleven, but I do see an improved offensive attack in Detroit for years to come. Its more even defensively, a clear tie. Even though the Lions should be given both games over the Bears, I can hardly see that happening, especially because of how terrible their linebackers and secondary is. But the Bears dropping one game to them wouldn’t surprise, and that’ll leave the Bears at 1-3 so far.
As they round out the division against the Vikes, they’ll nearly get swept in the offensive round again. Their rushing game is what is saving them from the sweep here, as they averaged 4.2 yds/rush. The offense seemed to be the main reason the Bears went 0-4 this preseason. An offensive line that failed to protect the QB led to 19 sacks allowed, the league worst. They made strides towards the end, but nevertheless a weak spot on the team. The Bears statistically weren’t slouches, but the Vikes were just that much better, besting them in sacks, INT’s, rush yds/allowed, rush TD’s allowed, and total points allowed, all by narrow margins. They tied in pass TD’s allowed, but the Bears look like they may be 1-5 in the Black and Blue division if you go by the preseason alone, but I predict a more realistic 3 wins. Probably splitting each of their series’.
Starting with their AFC opponents in the East, the Bears will lose to the Bills offensively by one category and sweep the Jets in all categories except sacks. They’ll also lose all categories to the Pats and lose all to the Fins despite a tie in rush TD’s. They’ll bounce back defensively, winning all but INT’s against the Patriots, yet still losing the matchup. This seems likely as Tom Brady shouldn’t have a problem picking apart the secondary in week 14. Chicago will pick up the lost offensive category to the Bills on defense, and get a win from them. This was their first clear cut win in terms of preseason stats, and I think despite going into Toronto for week eight, they’ll leave victorious over Buffalo, mainly because of a superior defense. The Bears will also get a win over the Jets 8-4 in the 12 categories, but the team they put out in the preseason is a heck of a lot different from what Rex Ryan will have come week one, especially now that Revis Island has been locked up for four years. His presence alone allows the Jets to stack the box and focus on the run or other aspects of their opponent’s offense. As well, the Bears faired better on defense against Miami, but will still lose, giving them a 2-2 record against the AFC East. This is what I predicted from them, but beating the Jets could be more difficult than the statistics may say.
With 6 games left and a 3-7 record to this point, my 9-7 prediction for the Bears this season is in jeopardy. Kind of, but not really. Their other full NFC division will be the East, a division in the preseason that was equally as bad offensively. The Bears beat out the Eagles by 2 games, tied the Cowboys, but unfortunately lost to the Skins in all but rush yds/game. They will also lose by two categories to the Giants. The Monsters of the Midway will let their defense take over, finishing over .500 in a division for the first time. They’ll lose outright to the Redskins, taking a mere one category from them on each side of the ball. The ‘Skins had a good preseason, but they’re another middle of the road team like the Bears, but they will come out with a win. The Eagles join the Jets as the two teams who stack up the worst against the Bears, as they’ll lose 8-4 just as the Jets did. The Eagles are young and I think the big names on the Bears defense will have no problem stopping them come Novemeber 28th when they meet. They will tie both the Cowboys and the Giants, so I’ll give them one win out of both of those matchups. This puts them at 5-9 before they meet the last two NFC opponents.
These final two are the Panthers and the Seahawks, who they’ll face in weeks five and six respectively. Against the Panthers, they’ll win 5 of the 7 categories, and only let up 3 more sacks than them, the closest for an opponent thus far. On defense, they’ll lose 1-3 along with a tie in pass TD’s. They’ll end 5-5-1 against them, as the Panthers defense made strides to tie it up. I’ll give this one to the Bears, as I have faith in their big names to do well this season. I really see Brian Urlacher and Julius Peppers leading this team through tough stretches. Their experience is vital, and leadership was void on the squad last season. For the Seahawks, they’ll tie at 3-3-1 on offense, but they’ll break through by beating them 4-1 on defense. The Seahawks released T.J Houzyamama yesterday, allowing the Bears to worry a little less about their shaky secondary. I see a win in week six for them for sure, but we’ll have to wait and see.
According to this ridiculous prediction system, the Bears will finish 7-9, two wins less than what I predict for the season ahead. Predicting the outcome of games off of statistics alone isn’t the best way to decide who gets a W or an L, especially if the statistics are meaningless. But right now we’re in football purgatory. Right after coaches make the cuts to 53 men, us fans must play the waiting game. For now we fill the void with fantasy teams or college football, but come Thursday we’ll get the first taste of the 2010 season. And I can hardly wait.
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